Re-Shuffling of Species with Climate Disruption A No-Analog Future for California Birds 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Re-Shuffling of Species with Climate Disruption A No-Analog Future for California Birds 英文参考文献.doc

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Re-Shuffling of Species with Climate Disruption A No-Analog Future for California Birds 英文参考文献

Re-ShufflingofSpecieswithClimateDisruption:ANo- AnalogFutureforCaliforniaBirds? DianaStralberg1*,DennisJongsomjit1,ChristineA.Howell1,MarkA.Snyder2,JohnD.Alexander3, JohnA.Wiens1,TerryL.Root4 1PRBOConservationScience,Petaluma,California, UnitedStatesofAmerica, 2ClimateChangeandImpactsLaboratory,DepartmentofEarthandPlanetarySciences, University ofCaliforniaSanta Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States ofAmerica, 3Klamath Bird Observatory, Ashland, Oregon, United States of America, 4Woods InstitutefortheEnvironment,YangYamazakiEnvironmentEnergyBuilding,StanfordUniversity,Stanford,California,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Byfacilitatingindependentshiftsinspecies’distributions,climatedisruptionmayresultintherapiddevelopmentofnovel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowedfrompaleoecologytoquantifythepotentialchangeinCaliforniaterrestrialbreedingbirdcommunitiesbasedon currentandfuturespecies-distributionmodelsfor60focalspecies.Projectionsoffutureno-analogcommunitiesbasedon twoclimatemodelsandtwospecies-distribution-modelalgorithmsindicatethatby2070overhalfofCaliforniacouldbe occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the communityscaleexamined,butconsistentgeographicpatternsindicatedseverallocationsthatareparticularlylikelytohost novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in communitycompositionandunanticipatedconsequencesofnovelspeciesassemblages. Citation:StralbergD,JongsomjitD,HowellCA,SnyderMA,AlexanderJ