Thinking outside the curve, part II modeling fetal-infant mortality 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Thinking outside the curve, part II modeling fetal-infant mortality 英文参考文献.doc

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Thinking outside the curve, part II modeling fetal-infant mortality 英文参考文献

Charnigoetal.BMCPregnancyandChildbirth2010,10:44 /1471-2393/10/44 TECHNICAL ADVANCE OpenAccess Thinkingoutsidethecurve,partII:modeling fetal-infantmortality RichardCharnigo1*,LorieWChesnut2,TonyLoBianco3,RussellSKirby4 Abstract Background:Greaterepidemiologicunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongfetal-infantmortalityandits prognosticfactors,includingbirthweight,couldhavevastpublichealthimplications.Akeysteptowardthat understandingisarealisticandtractableframeworkforanalyzingbirthweightdistributionsandfetal-infant mortality.Thepresentpaperisthesecondofatwo-partseriesthatintroducessuchaframework. Methods:Weproposeestimatingbirthweight-specificmortalitywithineachcomponentofanormalmixture modelrepresentingabirthweightdistribution,thenumberofcomponentshavingbeendeterminedfromthedata ratherthanfixedapriori. Results:Weaddressanumberofmethodologicalissuesrelatedtoourproposal,includingtheconstructionof confidenceintervalsformortalityriskatanygivenbirthweightwithinacomponent,foroddsratioscomparing mortalitywithintwodifferentcomponentsfromthesamepopulation,andforoddsratioscomparingmortality withinanalogouscomponentsfromtwodifferentpopulations.Asanillustrationwefindthat,forapopulationof whitesingletoninfants,theoddsofmortalityat3000gareanestimated4.15timesaslargeincomponent2ofa 4-componentnormalmixturemodelasincomponent4(95%confidenceinterval,2.04to8.43).Wealsooutlinean extensionofourframeworkthroughwhichcovariatescouldbeprobabilisticallyrelatedtomixturecomponents. Thisextensionmightallowtheassertionofapproximatecorrespondencesbetweenmixturecomponentsand identifiablesubpopulations. Conclusions:Theframeworkdevelopedinthispaperdoesnotrequireinfantsfromcompromisedpregnanciesto shareacommonbirthweight-specificmortalitycurve,muchlessassumetheexistenceofanintervalof birthweightsoverwhichallinfantshavethesamecurve.Hence,thepresentframeworkcanrevealheterogeneityin mortalitythatisundetectableviaacontaminatednormalmodelora2-componentnormalmixturemodel. Background decline in the low birt