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Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness.doc

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Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness

Emerging Themes in Epidemiology BioMedCentral Analytic perspective Open Access Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness Hiroshi Nishiura*1,2 Address: 1Department of Medical Biometry, University of Tübingen, Westbahnhofstr. 55, Tübingen, D-72070, Germany and 2Research Center for Tropical Infectious Diseases, Nagasaki University Institute of Tropical Medicine, Sakamoto 1-12-4, Nagasaki, 852-8523, Japan Email: Hiroshi Nishiura* - nishiura.hiroshi@uni-tuebingen.de * Corresponding author Published: 11 May 2007 Received: 8 November 2006 Accepted: 11 May 2007 Emerging Themes in Epidemiology 2007, 4:2 doi:10.1186/1742-7622-4-2 This article is available from: /content/4/1/2 ? 2007 Nishiura; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract The incubation period of infectious diseases, the time from infection with a microorganism to onset of disease, is directly relevant to prevention and control. Since explicit models of the incubation period enhance our understanding of the spread of disease, previous classic studies were revisited, focusing on the modeling methods employed and paying particular attention to relatively unknown historical efforts. The earliest study on the incubation period of pandemic influenza was published in 1919, providing estimates of the incubation period of Spanish flu using the daily incidence on ships departing from several ports in Australia. Although the study explicitly dealt with an unknown time of exposure, the assumed periods of exposure, which had an equal probability of infection, were too long, and thus, likely resulted in slight underestimates of the incubation period. After the suggestion that the incubati