Effects of Population Growth and Climate Variability on Sustainable Groundwater in Mali, West Africa.docVIP

Sustainability 2011, 3, 21-34; doi:10.3390/su3010021 OPEN ACCESS sustainability ISSN 2071-1050 /journal/sustainability Article Effects of Population Growth and Climate Variability on Sustainable Groundwater in Mali, West Africa Alexandra Lutz 1,*, James M. Thomas 1 and Mamadou Keita 2 1 Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Parkway, Reno NV 89512, USA; E-Mail: jthomas@ 2 Mali Rural Water Project, World Vision, Bla, Mali; E-Mail: mamadou_keita@ * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: Alexandra.Lutz@; Tel.: +1-775-673-7418; Fax: +1-775-673-7363. Received: 5 November 2010; in revised form: 16 December 2010 / Accepted: 17 December 2010 / Published: 23 December 2010 Abstract: Groundwater is increasingly relied on as a source of potable water in developing countries, but factors such as population growth, development, and climate variability, pose potential challenges for ongoing sustainable supply. The effect of these factors on the groundwater system was considered in four scenarios using a numerical model to represent the Bani area of Mali, West Africa. By 2040, population growth, climate variability, and development as urbanization, agriculture, and industry creates scenarios in which groundwater extraction is an increasingly larger percentage of the groundwater system. Consumption from agriculture and industry increases extraction rates from less than 1 to 3.8% of mean annual precipitation, which will likely affect the groundwater system. For instance, concentrated pumping in local areas may result in water level declines. The results of this study contribute to an ongoing evaluation of sustainable groundwater resources in West Africa. Keywords: groundwater; sustainability; climate; population growth 1. Introduction One of the greatest challenges that developing nations currently face is providing access to sustainable