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Estimating Aerosol Emissions by Assimilating Remote Sensing Observations into a Global Transport Model.doc

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Estimating Aerosol Emissions by Assimilating Remote Sensing Observations into a Global Transport Model

RemoteSens.2012,4,3528-3543;doi:10.3390/rs4113528 OPENACCESS RemoteSensing ISSN2072-4292 /journal/remotesensing Article EstimatingAerosolEmissionsbyAssimilatingRemoteSensing ObservationsintoaGlobalTransportModel NickSchutgens 1,?,MakikoNakata 2 andTeruyukiNakajima 3 1 2 AOPP,UniversityofOxford,Parksrd,OX13PUOxford,UK FacultyofAppliedSociology,EnvironmentalStudies,KinkiUniversity,3-4-1Kowakae, 577-8502HigashiOsaka,Osaka,Japan;E-Mail:nakata@socio.kindai.ac.jp AORI,UniversityofTokyo,5-1-5Kashiwanoha,277-8658Kashiwa,Chiba,Japan; E-Mail:teruyuki.nakajima@aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp 3 *Authortowhomcorrespondenceshouldbeaddressed;E-Mail:schutgens@physics.ox.ac.uk; Tel.:+44-1865-272-095. Received:12September2012;inrevisedform:10November2012/Accepted:10November2012/ Published:19November2012 Abstract:Wepresenta?xed-lagensembleKalmansmootherforestimatingemissionsfora globalaerosoltransportmodelfromremotesensingobservations.WeassimilateAERONET AOTandAEaswellasMODISTerraAOToveroceantoestimatetheemissionsfordust,sea saltandcarbonaerosolandtheprecursorgasSO2.ForJanuary2009,globallydustemission decreasesby26%(to3,244Tg/yr), seasaltemissionincreasesby190%(to9073Tg/yr), while carbon emission increases by ～45% (to 136 Tg/yr), compared with the standard emissions. Remaining errors in global emissions are estimated at 62% (dust), 18% (sea salt) and 78% (carbons), with the large errors over land mostly due to the sparseness of AERONETobservations.Thenewemissionsareveri?edbycomparingaforecastrunagainst independentMODISAquaAOT,whichshowssigni?cantimprovementoverbothoceanand land.Thispapercon?rmstheusefulnessofremotesensingobservationsforimprovingglobal aerosolmodelling. Keywords:aerosol;emissionestimation;Kalmansmoother;MODIS;AERONET RemoteSens.2012,4 3529 1.Introduction Intercomparisonstudiesofglobalaerosolmodels[1]haveshownthatconsiderabledifferencesexist in spatial distributions and temporal evolutions of aerosol ?elds. Bates et al. [2] suggested, based on an analysis of two models, that