Evaluating the Effects of Environmental Changes on the Gross Primary Production of Italian Forests.docVIP

Remote Sens. 2009, 1, 1108-1124; doi:10.3390/rs1041108 OPEN ACCESS Remote Sensing ISSN 2072-4292 /journal/remotesensing Article Evaluating the Effects of Environmental Changes on the Gross Primary Production of Italian Forests Fabio Maselli 1,*, Marco Moriondo 1, Marta Chiesi 1, Gherardo Chirici 2, Nicola Puletti 3, Anna Barbati 4 and Piermaria Corona 4 1 IBIMET-CNR, Via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019 Firenze, Italy; E-Mails: m.moriondo@r.it (M.M.); m.chiesi@r.it (M.C.) 2 DISTAT, Università del Molise, Contrada Fonte Lappone, 86090 Pesche, Isernia, Italy; E-Mail: gherardo.chirici@unimol.it 3 DISTAF, Università di Firenze, Via S. Bonaventura 13, 50145 Firenze, FI, Italy; E-Mail: nicola.puletti@unifi.it 4 DISAFRI, Università della Tuscia, Via S. Camillo de Lellis, 01100, Viterbo, Italy; E-Mails: anna.barbati@unitus.it (A.B.); piermaria.corona@unitus.it (P.C.). * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: maselli@r.it; Tel.: +39-055-522-6024; Fax: +39-055-444-083. Received: 15 October 2009; in revised form: 6 November 2009 / Accepted: 16 November 2009 / Published: 19 November 2009 Abstract: A ten-year data-set descriptive of Italian forest gross primary production (GPP) has been recently constructed by the application of Modified C-Fix, a parametric model driven by remote sensing and ancillary data. That data-set is currently being used to develop multivariate regression models which link the inter-year GPP variations of five forest types (white fir, beech, chestnut, deciduous and evergreen oaks) to seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. The five models obtained, which explain from 52% to 88% of the inter- year GPP variability, are then applied to predict the effects of expected environmental changes (+2 °C and increased CO 2 concentration). The results show a variable response of forest GPP to the simulated climate change, depending on the main ecosystem features. In contrast, the