antarctica美赛论文.docVIP

第四届“认证杯”数学中国 数学建模国际赛 承 诺 书 我们仔细阅读了第四届“认证杯”数学中国数学建模国际赛的竞赛规则。 我们完全明白，在竞赛开始后参赛队员不能以任何方式（包括电话、电子邮件、网上咨询等）与队外的任何人（包括指导教师）研究、讨论与赛题有关的问题。 我们知道，抄袭别人的成果是违反竞赛规则的, 如果引用别人的成果或其他公开的资料（包括网上查到的资料），必须按照规定的参考文献的表述方式在正文引用处和参考文献中明确列出。 我们郑重承诺，严格遵守竞赛规则，以保证竞赛的公正、公平性。如有违反竞赛规则的行为，我们将受到严肃处理。 我们允许数学中国网站()公布论文，以供网友之间学习交流，数学中国网站以非商业目的的论文交流不需要提前取得我们的同意。 我们的参赛队号为： 我们选择的题目是： 参赛队员 (签名) ： 队员1：仲崇禹 队员2：曾赠 队员3：缪莲海 参赛队教练员 (签名)： 第四届“认证杯”数学中国 数学建模国际赛 编 号 专 用 页 参赛队伍的参赛队号：（请各个参赛队提前填写好）：1865 竞赛统一编号（由竞赛组委会送至评委团前编号）： 竞赛评阅编号（由竞赛评委团评阅前进行编号）： White Antarctica, Colorful Temperature Abstract: According to analyze the tendency of temperature variation in Antarctic, our goal is a model that can define and estimate the average surface temperature from the database, and describe Antarctic temperature variation with time. Based on theory of thermal equilibrium in Earth, we construct of characteristic quantity to define and estimate the temperature variation in Antarctic. After we construct model to analyze three effect, which is the solar heating effect, natural cooling effect, area of heat transfer effect. Method explaining changes of temperature indexes through time series analysis and spatial economics to describe the average surface temperature. Because of energy transfer effect on spatial, temperature distribution exist positive spillovers. According to solve the regression model, we get the 0.055 as the spatial lag coefficient. Therefore, it is obvious that temperature distribution exist overflow effect. In addition, we prove that the model works well by the result of 0.94 as goodness of fit. What’s more, we analyze the relationship between temperature and atmospheric turbulence according to linear regression method, so that we get the result of obvious positive correlation. So the larger temperature changes that the bigger atmospheric turbulence values. At last, we make sensitivity analysis to test model stability. Then we draw a conclusion that model have strong robustness. Ac