雾天区域公路网通行安全性预警方法研究.pdfVIP

学兔兔 第4O卷，第4期 公 路 工 程 Vo1．40，No．4 2 0 1 5年 8月 Highway Engineering Aug．，2015 雾天区域公路网通行安全性预警方法研究 侯伟明，张 磊 (江西省交通设计研究院有限责任公司，江西南昌 330002) [摘 要】为克服以往雾天区域公路网通行条件预警指标量化以及权重取值的主观性，同时避免传统预警综 合指数法不能体现动态预警指标所处警度范围的缺陷，首先建立雾天公路网通行条件安全性评价指标体系，利用 集值统计模型获取预警指标评价值及可靠度，采用区间判断矩阵对各指标客观赋权，将评价值、可靠度以及指标权 重按一定规则作为模型输人端，依据属性测度分析得到雾天区域公路网通行条件安全性综合预警等级值。实例分 析结果表明，该方法所得警度与传统方法预警等级具有较高贴近度。 [关键词]雾；公路网；集值统计；最大离差法；集对分析；集对势；预警等级 [中图分类号】U 491．1’3 [文献标识码]A [文章编号】1674—0610(2015)04—0210—05 Mountainous Expressway Safety Rating Research on Fog Weather ConditiOilS HOU Weiming，ZHANG Lei (Communications Design Research Institute Co．，、Ltd of Jiangxi Prov．Nanchang，Jiangxi 330002， China) [Abstract J In order to overcome the uniqueness of evaluation index in which traffic safety on moun· tainous expressway fog is classified，and avoid subjectivity of determining the weight in previous classifica· tion method，Firstly，the major factors such as speed，speed discrete degree and ambient brightness which affect the fog zone traffic safety were taken full account of，inform ation entropy theory was applied to endo— wing the major indicators some value，and matter element analysis applied to dividing single indicators membership level，secondly，the weight of the single index and membership grade value were multiplied by a certain rule．Finally，mountain expressway sections integrated security level was obtained on foggy weather condition．Examples of analysis results show that the road section safety classification evaluation result