失能老人预测——英文.pdf

RESEARCH RESEARCH Disability in older Australians: projections for 2006–2031 Lynne C Giles, Ian D Cameron and Maria Crotty AS THE AUSTRALIAN POPULATION ABSTRACT ages, changes in the distribution of disa- bility and morbidity will lead to changes Objectives: To provide detailed projections for the prevalence of disability and in healthcare needs and costs of care for associated common health conditions for older Australians for the period 2006–2031. older people.1,2 To appropriately plan Design: Secondary analyses of datasets (national 1998 Survey of Disability, Ageing The Medical Journal of Australia ISSN: health services we need reliable projec- and Carers; and projections of Australia’s population from 2006–2031) collected by 0025-729X 4 August 2003 179 3 130- tions of disability in both the entire the Australian Bureau of Statistics. 133 population and in older people. ©The Medical Journal of Australia 2003 Outcome measures: (i) The projected number of people with differing levels of The most recent (1998) national Sur- .au disability (core activity restrictions in self-care, mobility or communication) up to 2031; Research vey of Disability, Ageing and Carers (ii) The projected number of people with the main health conditions associated with (SDAC) in 1998 by the Australian disability in 2006 and 2031. Bureau of Statistics (ABS) estimated Results: Projections indicate a 70% increase in the number of older people with that 3.6 million Australians (19%) had