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中国和印度的工业增长及不平等 China India Growth Industrialisation and Inequality
* The Chinese case Elasticity of employment with respect to GDP over 1995-2008 was 0.03. So a 1 percent increase in GDP was associated with a .03 percent increase in employment. This includes agriculture where employment is declining. In secondary (manufacturing and construction) and tertiary sectors, output elasticity of employment was 0.13 for both, also very low. Decreasing Employment Elasticity in China Employment Growth value-added Growth employment Elasticity 1980-1990 Primary Industry 2.8 6.2 0.45 Secondary Industry 5.9 9.5 0.62 Tertiary Industry 7.9 12.2 0.65 Total 4.1 9.3 0.44 1990-2000 Primary Industry -0.8 3.8 -0.21 Secondary Industry 1.6 13.5 0.12 Tertiary Industry 5.1 9.1 0.56 Total 1.1 10.1 0.11 Informalising Labour Market Unorganised and migrant workers in China These data leave out the increasing proportion of unorganised workers, most particularly the rural migrants. Many of them are self-employed. Rural-urban migrants currently estimated to be around 150 million (half the urban work force). Recent CASS survey shows that in 2005 a majority of migrant workers were in informal activities and typically faced long hours of work for all days of the week, for less than minimum wages and with poor residential conditions. Poverty reduction China: Officially 4 per cent of the population now lives under the poverty line, unofficially around 12 per cent. (Reflects earlier asset redistribution and basic needs provision in China under communism, plus larger mass market and recent role of agricultural prices.) India: Official poverty ratio much higher and persistent, currently 28 per cent. Food deprivation is much higher. Poverty reduction in India depends upon a relatively egalitarian path of growth increases in agricultural productivity that help raise wages and keep food prices under control expansion of non-agricultural employment, including in rural areas direct public action in the form of poverty eradication programmes aimed at generating produ
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