气候变化背景下安徽沿淮地区冬小麦精准播期的研究.docVIP

气候变化背景下安徽沿淮地区冬小麦精准播期的研究 杨书运1 严平1 钱坤2 （1安徽农业大学，合肥 230036；2 安徽省农科院，合肥 230031） 摘要：本文利用气象资料，结合冬小麦高产播种要求，对安徽省沿淮地区的冬小麦精准播期的可预测性进行研究。结果表明，该地区适宜播期呈推迟趋势，变化率约1.75d/10yr，气候变暖是播期推迟的根本原因；播期在年际之间存在较大波动，非规律性极端天气气候事件是播期波动的主要原因；温度变化的规律性和后效性使冬小麦的播期具有可预报性。研究认为沿淮地区宜选用10月15日以后的五日滑动平均温度首次降到17℃以下作为冬小麦适宜播种指标；常规气象预报较高的准确性已经可以实现冬小麦精准播期的预报。 关键词：冬小麦 精准播期 气候变化 The Research of Precision Sowing Date of Winter Wheat in the Region along Huaihe River in Anhui Province under Climate Change Yang Shyyun1, Yan Ping1, Qian Kun2 (1Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036; 2 Anhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hefei 230031) Abstract: The precision sowing date of winter wheat in the region along Huaihe River in Anhui province was studied in this paper according to the high-yielding cultural techniques of winter wheat and the meteorological data. The results show that the suitable sowing dates has a delay trend in the region, the rate is about 1.75d/10yr, and climate warming is the fundamental reason for the delaying. But the sowing dates were fluctuations in the past 61 years, and the irregular extreme weather conditions were the main cause. The precision sowing date is Potential predictability based on the regularly downward trend and after-effect of temperature. The research shows that the index of sowing date in the region along Huaihe River in Anhui Province is the first day when the five days moving average temperature below 17℃, and then the precision sowing date could be accurate prediction based on the accurate routine weather forecast. Keywords: winter wheat, precision sowing date, climatic change 自20世纪80年代以来的全球变暖尤以秋、冬季节增温最为明显，使许多技术指标已不适应大田要求，其首要的问题是播种期问题。按照传统播期播种，受温度上升影响，越冬前积温增加，造成冬小麦冬前旺长，主茎叶片增多，土壤肥力消耗增大，抗寒锻炼不足，抗寒能量下降，冬季容易遭受低温冻害威胁。播期推迟不又容易造成麦苗情弱，抗性差，也不利越冬，且返青后苗情差。为应对气候变化带来的冬小麦播期的不确定性，目前多由农技部门提出一个指导性的适宜播种阶段，这一做法在一定程度上解决了气候变暖对冬小麦适宜播期的影响。尽管气候变化具有较强的趋势性，也具有强烈的波动性，每年的热量条件均有较大差异，冬小麦的适宜播种期实际上是处于动态变化中，采用相对稳定的播种期难以有效应对气候波动导致的苗情风险，不利于稳产高产，同时增加用种量、浪费土壤肥力，增加了农业资源的浪费，也间接增加了农业源温室气体的排放。随着气象技术的高度发展，较为准确的长期