资本流出管制在短期内对资本外流促进机制的理论分析.pdfVIP

E噩噩噩 年 第 期 资本流出管制在短期内对资本外流 促进机制的理论分析 方慧l 徐杰1 杨玉洁2 (1.山东财政学院国际经济系，山东济南250014; 2. 滨州市环保局，滨州 2566∞) 摘要:经济管理当局实行资本流出管制的目的，就是希望这种政策能够有效的阻止或减少本国的大量资本流 出，但同时由于这种政策会增加本国资产持有者对未来不能自由支自己资产的担心，也会产生加强资本外流的 作用。国内外很多学者已经证明资本管制政策只在短期内可以发挥这一效能。但是中国和其他一些国家的 经验数据表明，有时在短期内管制政策也无法发挥当局期望的作用，而对资本外流的加强却可能起到了主导 作用。通过一个理论模型，解释在短期内资本管制政策加强资本外流作用的发生机制。 关键词:资本管制;资本外流;资本外逃 中圈分类号: F032.1 文献标识码:A 文章编号: 1001-9839(2007)03-0063-07 Theoretical Analysis of the Influence of Capital Control Policy on Capital Outf1ow 1 1 FANG Hui XU Iie YANG Yu才it ( 1. Department of International Economics , Shandong University of Finance , Jinan 25∞14 ， P. R. China; 2. Binzhou Environment Protection Bureau , Binzhou 256600 , P. R. China) Abstract:ηle main objective of capital controls policy is to prevent or 创 le幽t reduce the amount of cap- ital outf1ow , but home assets holders always worry that they would never control their own assets freely because of this policy. Many authors have provided evidence that capital control policy only can help a- chieve this objective as the govemment has originally expected in the short term. However , the empirical evidence from China shows capital control cannot prevent or reduce the capital outf1ow even in the short term. So the other possibility is that such a short - term policy may even simulate capital outflow or cap- ital flight. The objective of this article is to show how the capital control policy stimulates cap