32-中美两国的贸易逆差、外交反应与双边贸易平衡.pdfVIP

中美两国的贸易逆差、外交反应与双边贸易平衡 1 张彬 江海潮 （武汉大学经济与管理学院，湖北武汉，430072 ） 摘要：中美贸易逆差是中美经济和政治外交博弈互动的结果，并由中美经济内生力量和政治外交力量共同 决定。实证模型表明：（1）中美贸易逆差扩大是中美外交重要驱动力量；（2）中美总外交具有缩小贸易逆 差、平衡中美贸易效应，而中美双边访问、双边协商和外交声明的中美贸易平衡效应具有不对称性和时滞 性；（3）中美贸易逆差历史积累具有逆差扩张效应；（4）中美贸易逆差的变动由逆差自身扩张效应和外交 平衡效应共同决定，但起主要作用的是经济内生逆差积累扩张效应；（5）中美可以积极发展外交和调整外 交组合模式，调节中美贸易逆差，但不能根本上解决中美贸易不平衡问题。 关键词：中美贸易逆差 中美外交 贸易平衡 回归模型 The Sino-America Trade Deficit, The China -US Diplomacy Responses and Bilateral Trade Balance Zhangbin Jiang haichao (Economics and Management School of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China) Abstract: The Sino-America trade deficit resulting from China-US economic game and bilateral diplomacy interaction, was determined by the endogenous power of the Sino-America economy and politic power. Our regression Model Shows that: (1)The Sino-America trade deficit is the important cause that drive development of de diplomatic relationship, and(2) the whole diplomatic relationship was benefit to the trade balance, but the China-US leader’s visits, talks, and negotiations, important declarations imposed asymmetric and time-lagged effects on bilateral trade balance;(3)The cumulative trade deficit will expand the Sino-America trade imbalance;(4)The change of China-US trade imbalance that determined by the self expansion, and the diplomatic balance effect, mainly determined by economic endogenous power;(5)The China-US diplomatic development and structure adjustment will play important role in solving the trade problem, But that can not root out of the problem. Keywords: the Sino-America trade deficit the Sino-America diplomacy trade balance regression model 中美两国建立正式外交关系以来，中美在各个领域都加强了对话和交流，