高拱坝短期变形和应力预测预警方法及工程应用.pdfVIP

水利水电技术第46 卷 2015 年第l 期 高拱坝短期变形和应力预测预警方法 及工程应用 周秋景，张国新，刘 毅 (中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室，北京 100038 ) 摘 要:针对高拱坝预测预警能力不足的问题，提出了短时间内基于监测数据和全坝全过程仿真的混 合预测模型。在此基础上建立了包含坝体变形和关键部位应力的预警指标体系，能够明确给出各部位 变形和应力预警间值υ 在小湾拱坝初次蓄水期中的应用结果表明:变形和应力预警指标的间值设置比 较合理，能够对异常情况给出警报，实用且合理有效。研究成果为高拱坝安全运行提供了有效的预测 和预警思路。 关键词:高拱坝;预测预警;监测方法;应力变形 申图分类号: TV642.4 + TV698. 1 文献标识码: B 文章编号: 1 ∞0-0860(2015)01-0093-06 Prediction and early-warning method for short-term deformation and stress of high arch dam and its application ZHOU Qiujing , ZHANG Guoxin , LIU Yi (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin , China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research , Beij ing 100038 , China) Abstract: According to the deficiencies of both the prediction and the early-warning capacities of high arch dams , a hybrid short- term prediction model is proposed herein based on the monitoring data and the simulation on the fu11 process of the whole dam. On the basis of this , an early-waming index system that includes the dam body deformation and the stresses at the key positions is established , which can definitely give out the early-warning thresholds of the deformations and stresses at a11 the positions. The result from the application during the initial impoundment of Xiaowan Arch Dam shows that the settings of thresholds for the de- formations and stresses are more reasonable , thus can give out warnings for the abnormal circumstances , which is practicable ,