柯柄生~~中国农业经济评论华中会议发言1.ppt

Food Security Issue in China: Old theme and New Context KE Bingsheng China Agricultural University The new context New leadership Their understanding and judgments New momentum of urbanization Consequences on demand and supply 10 years bumper harvest of grain production Impact on the media, the public perception, and on public investments The potential and real risk: Over-optimistic about the current situation and underestimation of the challenges Three key issues Need more Need to produce more Need to produce more efficiently Need more? More mouths: over 6 million more each year More Income: over 7% annual growth rate Positive income elasticity for food at large, and in particular for food from animal origins More convenient physical access…… More migrant workers: Huge number: over 270 million Still increase: about 10 million annually More per capita food intake (more money + more energy need) than rural and urban residents Food consumption of migrant workers (MW) Very important factor for estimating food balance in China, but no official statistics available Preliminary survey in 2013 by CAU team led by WU Laping provided strong evidences Food consumption of MW , CAU survey Coverage: 3710 samples (questionnaire responses) by 6 employment categories in 6 provinces Observations: Grain: rural and urban Animal products: rural but closely urban Total food: rural and urban by 40%！ Conclusion: The figures may not be accurate and need more surveys to verificate, but the trend is very clear: MW consumes much more. Need to produce more? China has become a net agri-food Importer since 2004. Import in 2012: in million tons: Soybean 58, cereals 14, edible oils 10.5, cotton 5.4…… Deficit: 4.9 in billion US$ Soybean import in 2012: 60% of the world’s total export 80% of demand 20% of total harvested area Can we duplicate the soybean case with: Rice, corn, wheat, or meat? Grain production in China Rice, wheat and corn production in China Grain sown areas in