宁夏人均gdp趋势分析及预测大学论文.doc

北方民族大学 学士学位论文 论文题目: 宁夏人均GDP趋势分析及预测  摘 要 人均GDP是具有重要经济意义的指标，常作为发展经济学中衡量经济发展状况的指标，是重要的宏观经济指标之一，它是人们了解和把握一个国家或地区的宏观经济运行状况的有效工具。将一个国家核算期内（通常是一年）实现的国内生产总值与这个国家的常住人口（目前使用户籍人口）相比进行计算，得到人均国内生产总值。是衡量各国人民生活水平的一个标准，为了更加客观的衡量，经常与购买力平价结合 ABSTRACT The per capita GDP is the index has important economic significance, often in development economics as a measure of economic development index, it is one of the important macroeconomic indicators, it is people to understand and grasp a country or regions macroeconomic the operation condition of effective tools. Will a national accounting period realize gross domestic product and the countrys permanent population (currently use census register population) compared to compute, get the per capita gross domestic product. Is the measure of the living standards of the people of all countries to a standard, in order to even more objective measure, often with purchasing power parity union, its growth has some of the internal regularity, paper built the actual per capita GDP in the trend of a mixed with time series model and analyzes the model of stability and can push sex, predicted in 2011-2017, ningxia actual per capita GDP development level, explain actual GDP per capita in ningxia has certain time trend. KEY WORDS：GDP of average per capita, the actual sequence model, prediction GDP = C + I + G + X - M  不同国家间的国内生产总值比较需要转换各国货币，转换方式主要有两种：(1)使用各国货币的国际汇率转换，或(2)根据各国货币与一选定标准（一般为美元）的购买力平价（英语缩写：PPP）。 通过两种方式得到的各国国内生产总值排名会有很大不同，因为如果使用国际汇率，就会由于发展中国家的货币在国际市场过弱，而低估国内消费者与生产商的购买力50~60%；但是如果使用购买力平价，则又无法精确计算该国在国际市场上的产品与服务。 国内生产总值分为名义国内生产总值与实际国内生产总值。其中，名义国内生产总值是以现行价格水平计算的国内生产总值