对气象致灾因子危险度诊断方法的探讨__杨秋珍S.pdf

0577—6619／2O10／68(2)0277—84ActaMeteorologicaSinica 气象学报 对气象致灾因子危险度诊断方法的探讨 杨秋珍 徐 明 李 军 YANGQiuzhen XU Mint LIJun。 1．中国气象局上海 台风研究所 ，上海 ，200030 2．上海区域气候 中心，上海 ，200030 1．ShanghaiT3thoonInstituteofChinaMeteorologicaIAdministration。Shanghai200030，China 2．ShanghaiRegionalClimateCenterforEastChina，Shanghai200030，China 2008—1102收稿 ，2009～03—18改 回． YangQiuzhen，XuMing，LiJun．2010．Aquantitativeandobjectiveapproachtodiagnosingthehazarddegreeofthemeteorological disastrousfactors．ActaM eteorologicaSinica，68(2)：277—284 Abstract Thelossesandriskscausedbymeteoro1ogica1disastersaredeterminedbythepotentialhazardofthemeteorological events，vulnerabilityofthehazard—affectedbody，aswellasnaturalandman—maderesilienceinthedisaster—pregnantenviron— ment．Amongthesefactors，twoofthem relatedtohazard—affectedbodyordisaster_pregnantenvironmentarecomparatively stableforacertainplaceandperiod，andmete。ro1ogicalhazardsarehoweverchangeable．Thespatialandtemporaldistribution patternsofmeteoroIogicalhazardslargelydeterminetheplaceandevolutionofdisasters．Accuratediagnosisofthehazardde- greeisthebaseforassessingthelossandriskofmeteorologicaldisasters．Inthispaper，thedefinitionofmete0rologicalhazard anditsdiagnosticmodelforboth localandregionalareasareputforward，andtherelationshipbetweenthevalueoftherandom variablesanditsprobability isappliedtodescribethedistributionofweathereventhazardsandbuilduptheriskthresholdfield thatiscomposedofhazard thresholdvaluesateachriskprobabilityleve1．Themeteorologica1hazarddegreeisdefinedasthein— tegrationofthesimilarityandapproachdegreeoftheobservationalvaluesforaneventtothethresholdvalueatvariousproba— bilityrisk levelsintheriskfield．Usingtherandom variableprobabilitydistributionmodel，themeteor0l0gicaIhazardthreshold valuesunderthespecificriskprobabilitylevelsinanygivenplaceandtheirthresholdfieldaredeterm ined，andthequantitative hazarddegreediagnosticmodelis