河北省人口老龄化与经济增长关系的统计分析.pdfVIP

摘 要 摘 要 计划生育作为我国的一项基本国策自制定以来对我国的人口问题和发展问题产生 了非常大的作用。然而，时至今日这项举措带来的老龄化问题已经日益凸显出来，并且 成为当今社会亟待解决的问题。 论文通过对河北省 1995-2013 年的人口结构数据进行分析，得出河北省于 2001 年 正式步入老龄化社会，当前河北省的人口老龄化程度在全国范围处于中等水平且主要表 现为低龄型老年人口结构。通过对各年龄死亡概率的推算，对河北省 2020 年的老年人 口状况进行预测，到2020年，河北省的老年人口将呈现高龄化。 选取老年人口抚养系数与人均国内生产总值分别作为人口老龄化和经济增长的替 代指标建立向量自回归模型，结果表明，河北省的人口老龄化与经济增长之间具有单向 因果关系，河北省经济的增长推动了人口老龄化的发展，并且这种影响具有滞后性。通 过从经济增长的要素角度进行实证分析得出，经济增长对人口老龄化的推动主要源于生 产率的提高。 关键词 老年人口抚养系数 死亡概率 向量自回归模型 格兰杰因果检验 1 Abstract Abstract Birth control as a basic national policy of China has played a big role in population control and society development since it produced. However, the relevant issue of the policy has become increasingly prominent, and becomes one of the most urgent problems in todays society. Based on the data of population composition in Hebei Province from 1995 to 2013,we come up with the idea that Hebei Province has officially entered the aging society in 2001, the aging population of Hebei Province in the country is in the middle level and it occurs as young elderly population composition. Through the calculation of the death probability of each age, we forecast the condition of the aging population in 2020 of Hebei Province, till the year of 2020, the older in the aging population will be increased. This paper selects the old dependency ratio and per capita GDP as the respective of aging population and economic growth, to establish the Vector Auto Regression model, results show that, there is a one-way causal relationship between aging population and economic growth in Hebei Province, the development of the economic growth promoted the aging populati