Mishkin_02_C09分解.ppt

Chapter 9 Financial Crises and the Subprime Meltdown 金融危机和次贷崩溃 FIGURE 1 Sequence of Events in U.S. Financial Crises 图9-1 美国金融危机中的事件顺序 FIGURE 3 Sequence of Events in Emerging Market Financial Crises图3 新兴市场金融危机中的事件顺序 FIGURE 2 Treasury Bill–to–Eurodollar Rate (TED) Spread图2 国库券与欧洲美元（TED）的利差 Source: /releases/h15/data.htm Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 9-* Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Factors Causing Financial Crises 导致金融危机的因素 Asset Markets Effects on Balance Sheets 资产负债表的资产市场效应 Stock market decline 股票市场的下跌 Decreases net worth of corporations 公司净值的下降 Unanticipated decline in the price level 物价水平的意外下降 Liabilities increase in real terms and net worth decreases 实际负债的上升和净值的的下降 Unanticipated decline in the value of the domestic currency 本币的意外贬值 Increases debt denominated in foreign currencies and decreases net worth 增加了以外币计值的债务数额和减少了净值 Asset write-downs 资产贬值 Factors Causing Financial Crises 导致金融危机的因素 Deterioration in Financial Institutions’ Balance Sheets 金融机构资产负债表恶化 Decline in lending 信贷数额的下降 Banking Crisis 银行危机 Loss of information production and disintermediation 信息生产的下降和金融脱媒 Increases in Uncertainty 不确定性的增加 Decrease in lending 信贷数额的下降 Factors Causing Financial Crises 导致金融危机的因素 Increases in Interest Rates 利率的提高 Increases adverse selection problem 加剧了逆向选择问题 Increases need for external funds and therefore adverse selection and moral hazard 提高了外部资金需求，从而加剧了逆向选择和道德风险问题 Government Fiscal Imbalances 政府财政收支失衡 Create fears of default on government debt 造成了对于出现政府债务违约情况的恐慌 Investors might pull their money out of the country投资者可能会从这些国家撤出资金 Dynamics of past U.S. Financial Crises 历史上美国金融危机的发生机制 Stage One: Initiation of Financial Crisis第一阶段: 金融危机的起始 Mismanagement of financial liberalization/ innovation 对于金融自由化和金融创新的管理失误 Asset price boom and bust 资产价格泡沫及其破灭 Spikes in interest rates 利率上升 Increase in uncertainty 不确定性提高 Stage two: Banking Crisis 银行危机 Stage three: Debt Deflation 债务通缩