我国经济系统脆弱性与可持续发展牵扯_15年样本.pdfVIP

MACROECONOMY 宏观经济 我国经济系统脆弱性 与可持续发展牵扯：15 年样本* The Relationship between Chinese Economic System Vulnerability and Sustainable Development: 15 Years Sample 杨爱婷 武 剑 内容提要 运用集对分析法和熵值法从敏感性和应对性两个角度对 1995~2009 年我国经济系统脆弱性进行分 析。研究表明：在 1995~2009 年我国经济系统脆弱性呈不断下降趋势，说明经济系统安全性和可持续能力在不断 增强。但从敏感性看，困扰我国经济发展的问题却不减反增，增加了经济脆弱性上升的内在倾向。化解经济危机、 降低经济脆弱性应克服就业、消费与投资、研发支出，以及能源环境问题等主要障碍，迅速提升经济系统应对性。 关键词 经济系统 脆弱性 敏感性 应对性 障碍度 作者单位 华中科技大学经济学院 湖北武汉 430074 ； 湖南大学经济与贸易学院 湖南长沙 410079 Yang Aiting Wu Jian Abstract: The paper applies Set Pair Analysis and Entropy Method to analyze Chinese economic system vulnerability with two perspectives of sensitivity and resilience from 1995 to 2009. The research results show that: Chinese eco - nomic system vulnerability is descending from 1995 to 2009, which means the security and sustainable development ability of Chinese economic system increase continuously. But the sensitivity problems affecting Chinese economic development do not reduce instead increases, which increase the rising inherent tendency of economic vulnerability. The main reason of resolving the economic crisis and reducing economic vulnerability is the rapid promotion of the economic resilience. According to the factor analysis of obstacle degree, employment, consumption and investment, ’ RD spending, energy and environment problems are the main obstacles affecting the resilience s promotion. Key words: economic system, vulnerability, sensitivity, resilience, obstacle degree 从当前全球经济看， 经济系统脆弱性已经成为困扰各国经济从危机走向复 苏的关键问题。解决经济脆弱性问题已经成为当前世界各国政府的首要任务。我 国作为一个发展大国，在经历了 多年高速发展的同时，经济系统也积累了许 30 多矛盾，呈现出一定程