中亚地区及中国气候变化关系.docVIP

中亚地区及中国气候变化关系 　　摘要 利用戈达德太空研究所建立的全球网格逐月气温距平数据以及新疆地区国家基准地面气象逐月气温距平资料，通过一元线性回归方程、小波变换等方法，对中亚地区1961―2010年气温变化与中国气温变化关系进行了研究。结果表明：中亚地区在近50年中年平均气温在波动中呈递增趋势，年平均气温每10年气温增加0.277 ℃，这一增温幅度要高于全国年平均气温增温幅度；从1987年开始，中亚地区年平均气温开始呈逐渐增温趋势。我国年平均气温从20世纪80年代开始呈递增趋势，这一结论与中亚地区相一致；中亚地区年平均气温在随时间变化过程中存在着16～30年大尺度、6～12年中尺度和3年小尺度的3类尺度的周期变化规律，其中3年小尺度变化具有全域性。我国气温普遍存在3～4年的全域性周期变化规律，这一变化规律与中亚地区年平均气温存在3年小尺度全域性相一致；根据EOF分解得出，中亚地区年平均气温空间分布类型主要为东南―西北型、东―西型、南―北型 关键词 年平均气温；气候变化；小波变换；方差；EOF；中亚地区；中国 中图分类号 P467 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-5739（2016）24-0220-03 Relationship of Climate Change Between Central Asia and China ZHANG Li-ning （Longnan Meteorological Bureau in Jiangxi Province，Longnan Jiangxi 341700） Abstract Based on the global grid monthly air temperature anomaly data set up by the Goddard Institute for Space Research and the national monthly ground-level temperature anomaly data in Xinjiang area，linear regression equation and wavelet transform were used to analyze the relationship of climate change between Central Asia and China during 1961-2010.The results showed that in the recent 50 years，the average annual temperature in Central Asia increased with fluctuation，and the average annual temperature increased by 0.277 ℃ every 10 years. Since 1987，the annual average temperature in Central Asia began to show a trend of increasing temperature gradually. The annual average temperature in Central Asia varied in the range of 16～30 years large-scale，6～12 years middle-scale and 3-year small scale，and the 3-year small-scale change was global. The annual mean air temperature in China had a tendency of 3～4 years periodic variation，which was consistent with the 3-year small scale variation in Central Asia. According to the EOF decomposition，it was concluded that the main spatial distribution types in Central Asia were southeast-northwest type，east-west type and south-north type. Key words annual mean temperature；climate change；wavelet transform；variance；EOF；Central Asia；China 近年?恚?随着全球气温升高而导致蒸发量增大，