渤海海域溢油应急预测预警系统研究概论.PDF

第 30 卷 第 5 期 海 洋 通 报 Vol. 30, No. 5 2011 年 10 月 MARINE SCIENCE BULLETIN Oct. 2011 渤海海域溢油应急预测预警系统研究 I. 海洋动力要素预测技术研究 牟林，武双全，宋军，李欢，刘首华，李琰，高佳 （国家海洋信息中心，天津 300171 ） 摘 要：采用“油粒子”模型，模拟溢油在海洋中的漂移扩散运动，将海流、波浪和风场的模拟结果作为溢油漂移计算的外强迫， 来驱动溢油漂移模型，计算其漂移路径。把计算的溢油漂移结果与地理信息系统等平台相结合，建立了渤海海域应急预测预警系统。 本文作为该系统研制中的一部分，主要介绍了海流数值计算模型、波浪数值计算模型、风场数值计算模型和溢油预测模型的研究工 作。 关键字：油粒子；海流；波浪；溢油预测 中图分类号：P731.2; X834 文献标识码：A 文章编号： 1001-6932(2011)05-0502-07 Numerical model research on Emergency Warning Predicting system of ocean oil spill: I. Research on predicting of ocean dynamical factors MU Lin, WU Shuang-quan, SONG Jun, LI Huan, LIU Shou-hua, LI Yan, GAO Jia （National Marine Data and Information Service ，Tianjin 300171 ，China ） Abstract: The “oil particle” model is adopted to simulate the drift and diffusion of the oil spill in ocean. The simulative results of the current, wave and wind field are taken as the outside force for the computation to drive the oil spill drift model, and the drift trace is consequently calculated. The Emergency Warning Predicting system of Bohai Sea is established by combining those computed oil spill results and several platforms like GIS. As a part of this system, this paper introduces the research status of the numerical computing models of current, wave and wind field, and also the oil spill predicting model. Keywords: Oil Particle ；current ；wave ；Oil Spill Weathering Model 水运动，它们并不会因油膜的存在而产生较大的变 1 引 言 化。波余流则不同，根据 Stokes 理论，波余流的量