昭通横江流域年径流预测.PDFVIP

第33卷第3期 水摇 资摇 源摇 保摇 护 2017年5月 Vol.33 No.3 WATER RESOURCES PROTECTION May2017 DOI:10.3880/ j.issn.1004 6933.2017.03.003 昭通横江流域年径流预测 宋昭义,李绅东,代堂刚 (云南省水文水资源局昭通分局,云南 昭通摇 657000) 摘要:针对昭通横江由南到北贯穿昭通全境,水资源量丰富,但南北差异大,南部少、北部多的特点, 根据流域内水文站实测年径流、大气环流指数、海温指数及其他指数等资料系列,采用多元回归分 析法拟合1981—2010年径流,建立了预测模型,验证、预测分析了2011—2016 年径流量。 结果表 明:干流控制站预测精度高于干流上段及支流代表站,水利工程建设等人类活动影响是导致出现这 样结果的主要原因;多元回归分析在横江流域径流预测中具有一定的适应性,但因指标的差异及相 关参数可获取性的差异,预测结果存在区域间、等级间的差别。 关键词:多元回归分析法;年径流;预测模型;横江 中图分类号:P338摇 摇 摇 文献标志码:A摇 摇 摇 文章编号:1004 6933(2017)03 0009 04 Prediction of annual runoff over Hengjiang River Basin in Zhaotong City SONG Zhaoyi,LI Shendong,DAI Tanggang (Zhaotong Branch of Yunnan Province Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Zhaotong 657000,China) Abstract:The Hengjiang River, which flows through Zhaotong City from south to north, has abundant water resources. However,the water resources are unevenly distributed in the river basin,with a large quantity in the north and a small quantity in the south. Based on these characteristics,the runoff of the study area from 1981 to 2010 was simulated with the multiple regression analysis method,according to the observed annual runoff from hydrological stations in the river basin,the atmospheric circulation index,the SST index,and other indices. A runoff prediction model was established topredict the annual runoff over theperiodfrom2011to2016. Theresults show that the prediction accuracy of the main stream control stations was higher than that of the upstream and tributary stations,which was attributed to water conservancy project construction and other human activities. This study suggests that multipleregression analysisisapplicabletotherunoff predictionfor the Hengjiang River Basin, butt