气候环境变化对冬虫夏草产量影响及虫草产量预测模型探究.docVIP

气候环境变化对冬虫夏草产量影响及虫草产量预测模型探究 　　[摘要] 冬虫夏草是我国特有的名贵中药材，其道地产区是青藏高原那曲、昌都，青海玉树等地区。最近10年，虫草资源在盲目和过度的采挖中已经到达临界点，如何加快保护、发展和合理利用冬虫夏草这一宝贵资源，已提到了冬虫夏草研究和利用的重要议事日程。青藏高原生态环境和气候变化比其他地区具有超前变化趋势，这意味着冬虫夏草种群的分布和演化与其他种群比起来更明显和剧烈，该文基于RS（remote sensing，遥感）/GIS（geographic information system，地理信息系统）技术，利用雪线高程，采收期（4，5月）的平均气温，降水量和日照时长等环境因子和虫草产量之间的关系，建立加权几何平均模型，在每年的6月上旬预测当年的虫草产量，经过检验，该模型的精度可达82.16%以上。该研究可为虫草产业的健康、可持续发展提供基础数据和信息 [关键词] 冬虫夏草； 遥感； 环境因子； 加权几何平均； 产量预测 Climate change impacts on yield of Cordyceps sinensis and research on yield prediction model of C. sinensis ZHU Shoudong1， HUANG Luqi1*， GUO Lanping1， MA Xingtian2， HAO Qingxiu1， LE Zhiyong2， ZHANG Xiaobo1， YANG Guang1， ZHANG Yan1， CHEN Meilan1 （1.State Key Laboratory Breeding Base of Daodi Herbs， National Resource Center for Chinese Materia Medica， China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences， Beijng 100700， China； 2.Kangmei Pharmaceutical Co.， Ltd.， Shenzhen 518000， China） [Abstract] Cordyceps sinensis is a Chinese unique precious herbal material， its genuine producing areas covering Naqu， Changdu in Qinghai Tibet Plateau， Yushu in Qinghai province and other regions. In recent 10 years， C. sinensis resources is decreasing as a result of the blindly and excessively perennial dug. How to rationally protect， develop and utilize of the valuable resources of C. sinensis has been referred to an important field of research on C. sinensis. The ecological environment and climate change trend of Qinghai Tibet plateau happens prior to other regions， which means that the distribution and evolution of C. sinensis are more obvious and intense than those of the other populations. Based on RS （remote sensing）/GIS（geographic information system） technology， this paper utilized the relationship between the snowline elevation， the average temperature， precipitation and sunshine hours in harvest period （April and may） of C. sinensis and the actual production of C. sinensis to establish a weighted geometric mean model. The model′s pred