预期管理理论简介概要.pptx

预期管理理论简介;演讲提纲;引言：为什么讲预期管理？;经济学和自然科学的本质不同点;欧美理论界思想起源李拉亚（2016b）;政策透明;预期管理理论问世;预期管理的实质思想和特点;非常规货币政策的预期管理;前瞻性指导（Ｂａｎｋ　ｏｆ　Ｅｎｇｌａｎｄ，2013）;开放式引导ｏｐｅｎ－ｅｎｄｅｄ ｇｕｉｄａｎｃｅ特点是太活，容易误解;时间依赖型引导ｔｉｍｅ－ｃｏｎｔｉｇｅｎｔ　ｇｕｉｄａｎｃｅ特点是太死板，可信性不高;As a result, time-contingent guidance is unlikely to be that helpful now. For example, people may understand that time-contingent guidance is conditional upon the economic outlook, and that the MPC might revise its guidance in response to unanticipated developments. But such guidance, on its own provides no information about which shocks are most likely to result in a change in t