10级统计1班陈臻毕业论文.docVIP

河北经贸大学毕业论文 基于计量经济模型的我国能源消耗与经济发展关系探究 专业名称： 统计学 班 级： 201001 学生姓名： 陈臻 指导教师： 梁婉君 完成时间： 2014年5月  摘 要 能源是生产的的原动力,是国民经济发展的重要保障因素,为人类的生存和社会发展提供了物质条件。特别是，随着人类社会的不断发展，能源的供给与消耗和经济增长的关系越来越紧密。没有能源的持续稳定供给,经济很难实现增长。从根本上说,能源作为经济增长的推动力量,决定着经济增长的规模和速度，而经济的增长又提高了人类开发和利用能源的水平，从而不断提高能源利用率和消费结构。与此同时，自进入工业社会后，大规模的能源消耗所带来的高污染、高消耗等环境问题已严重影响到人类的生活质量并制约了经济的进一步发展。 我国作为一个能源生产和消耗的大国正高速的进行经济发展，理清能源消耗和经济发展这一重要关系可以有效保证我国可持续发展战略的进行。因此本文着眼于研究能源消耗与经济发展的定量关系。选取1978-2012年全国能源与经济的相关指标和数据，利用Eviews5.0软件并单位根检验，协整检验及Granger因果检验等方法分析数据以验证能源消耗与经济发展之间的关系，证明了我国能源消耗与经济发展之间存在长期均衡的协整关系和从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系，并从C-D生产函数角度出发，探究能源对经济发展的影响力，为协调我国能源消耗和经济发展提供理论依据。 关键字：能源消耗；经济发展；生产函数；Granger因果关系检验；协整检验 ABSTRACT Energy is a motive force of the production, is the important guarantee of national economy development, provide the human survival and social development. In particular, with the continuous development of human society, energy supply and consumption and economic growth increasingly close relationship. Without a steady supply of energy, it is difficult to realize economic growth. Fundamentally speaking, the energy as the driving force of economic growth, determine the scale and speed of economic growth, and the economic growth and improve the level of human development and utilization of energy, to improve energy efficiency and consumption structure. Meanwhile, after entering the industrial society, large energy consumption brought about by the high pollution, high consumption and other environmental issue has seriously affected the human life quality and restrict the further development of the economy. China as a major power of energy production and consumption is high speed of economic development, clarify the important relationship between energy consumption and economic development can effectively guarantee the sustainable development strategy in our country. So this essay focuses on research the quantitative relation