美赛2月10 定稿0204.docx

For office use onlyT1________________T2________________T3________________T4________________Team Control Number35659Problem ChosenBFor office use onlyF1________________F2________________F3________________F4________________2015Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM/ICM) Summary Sheet(Attach a copy of this page to your solution paper.)Air crash happens occasionally. How to determine an optimal SAR(Save and Rescue) area and conduct a most effective SAR with limited resources are the critical points in this paper.In Model one, we, according to the crew’s quality, plane property and the environment of the time, firstly develop a model of Two-stage Fuzzy Multi-factorial Evaluations to determine the interval and the distance L between lost-contact position and crash position. Based on the force analysis of hydromechanics, a dynamical model is developed to get the distance L of different types of planes. Then, we consider the debris are in a two-dimensional Gaussion distribution, and we divide the search region into several areas and get the probability distribution of the whole region and each area.Model two is used to get a dynamic probability distribution on the basis of Bayes method. Our search always gives a priority to the maximum probability area, and after searching this area, the probability of every other area would change. Based on the result of Model one, we can get the probability distribution after change.Model three describes the dynamic drift process of the debris. We simplify the complex drift process as a movement only influenced by current and wind, and construct the proper Objective function. Then the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the drift process and determine the position and area of debris distribution after drifting.Model four is established to find the optimal allocation of air forces. We propose two aspects of the SAR. One is short-term search and the other is long-term search. The short-term Model has the only goal: Save the time. It’s obv