3 投资决策分析1 726008525.ppt

* The cross-over rate is the IRR of project A-B * When I was an undergrad at the University of Missouri-Rolla, a good friend of mine abandoned college three credit hours shy of graduation. Really. Entreaties from his friends and parents regarding how far he had come and how hard he had worked could not change Louis’ mind. That was all a sunk cost to Louis. He already had a job and didn’t value the degree as much as the incremental work of an easy three-hour required class called ET-10 engineering drafting. Fifteen years later, he still has a good job, a great wife and two charming daughters. Louis taught me a lot about sunk costs. * See the text for the details of the case. * * To find ArT, just make PMT = $1 in your financial calculator, set T and r, and solve for PV * The often-cited investor who wants to keep his affairs private is described as “a Belgian Dentist”. * 不同投资决策方法的使用 * 估算现金流折现率的方法 * 投资决策时所考虑的风险因素 * 非财务分析时所考虑的因素 * 投资不同阶段的重要性与难易 * 不同阶段发挥核心作用的部门或岗位(%) * 实际投资业绩低于预期的原因 * 保龄球公司：一个例子 市场营销费用（已经支出）：$250,000. 厂房的当前市场价值（我们拥有）：$150,000. 保龄球的机器设备成本：$100,000 (用ACRS法五年摊销） 净营运资本增量：$10,000. 机器五年的产量分别为（单位：个）：5,000, 8,000, 12,000, 10,000, 6,000. 第一年的产品价格为$20，以后每年上涨2% 第一年每个产品的生产成本为$10，以后每年上涨 10% 每年的通货膨胀率为5%（？） 营运资本：初始金额为$10,000，随销售金额变化 * 保龄球公司的现金流量表 Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 投资： (1) 保龄球机器设备 –100.00 21.76* (2) 累计折旧 20.00 52.00 71.20 82.72 94.24 (3) 设备纳税调整（年末） 80.00 48.00 28.80 17.28 5.76 (4) 机会成本（仓库） –150.00 150.00 (5) 净营运资本（年末） 10.00 10.00 16.32 24.97 21.22 0 (6) 净营运资本变化 –10.00 –6.32 –8.65 3.75 21.22 (7) 投资的总现金流量 –260.00 –6.32 –8.65 3.75 192.98 [(1) + (4) + (6)] (单位：千美元) (所有的现金流量在年末发生) * 我们假定这项资本投资第5年的终结市场价值为$30,000。资本利得是终值市场价值与机器设备的纳税调整之差。纳税调整等于机器设备的初始购买价格减去折旧。资本利得为$24,240 (= $30,000 – $5,760)。我们假定包尔得文公司此项目的累进公司所得税税率为34％。资本利得现按一般所得税税率征税，因此此处的资本利得