吸毒人群基数估计方法研究实践.pdfVIP

痘监测 !生!!月 Q旦墓 2鲞箍!!翅 堑 S 堡 !! 塑，Nov_． Q，2 !， !：2 ：!! 吸毒人群基数估计方法研究实践 杨介者， 邹艳，徐云， 郭志宏， 潘晓红 摘要： 目的 探索在吸毒人群中开展规模估计的简便可行的有效方法。方法 在温州市利用强制 戒毒所资料和自愿戒毒中心、美沙酮门诊吸毒者调查，应用捕获一再捕获法、乘数法对现有吸毒人群 规模进行估计。结果 捕获一再捕获法估计吸毒人数温州市辖区为18 901人，其中鹿城区为ll 248 人，分别为登记在册人数的1．96和1．66倍。乘数法估计吸毒人数温州市辖区为2O 016人，鹿城区为 l3 953人，分别为登记在册人数的2．O8和2．06倍，两种估计方法有较好的一致性。结论 采用捕 获一再捕获法估计吸毒人群规模，避免了直接接触吸毒者，具有易操作、费用低等优点，结果可靠性 较好。采用乘数法进行吸毒人群基数估计时，选择戒毒所为接触目标机构，自愿戒毒中心和美沙酮 门诊等为乘数获取场所可行性较好。 关键词：吸毒人群；基数估计；捕获一再捕获法；乘数法 中图分类号：R181．3 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1003—996l(2007)l1—0734—03 Research and practice on methods for estimating the size of drug 11~1-s YANG Jie—zhe，ZOU Yan， XU Yun，GUO Zhi-hong，et a1．Zh~iang CDC，Hangzhou 310009，China Corresponding Author：YANG Jie—zhe，Email：jiezheyang@yahoo．com．cn Abstract：Objective This study was conducted to explore convenient and feasible and effective methods for estimating the size of drug users．Methods Th e size of the present drug users was estimated by methods of capture—recaptuer and multiptier．Th e data of drug users was from Compulsory Detoxification Institute，Voluntory Detoxification Center and Methadone Clinics in Wenzhou．Results Th e estimated population of drug users by method of capture-recaptuer was 18 901 in Wenzhou and 1 1 248 in Lucheng．which were 1．96 and 1．66 times respectively of registrated numbers．While by multiplier method，the size of drug users was 20 016 in Wenzhou and 13 953 in Lucheng．which were 2．08 and 2．06 times of registrated numbers respectively．The two methods were well consistent．Conclusions The application of capture-recaptuer method of estimating the size of drug users，which had the merits of easy handl