Two Centuries of Productivity Growth in Computing：（在计算两个世纪的生产率增长）.pdfVIP

Two Centuries of Productivity Growth in Computing WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS The present study analyzes computer performance over the last century and a half. Three results stand out. First, there has been a phenomenal increase in computer power over the twentieth century. Depending upon the standard used, computer performance has improved since manual computing by a factor be- tween 1.7 trillion and 76 trillion. Second, there was a major break in the trend around World War II. Third, this study develops estimates of the growth in computer power relying on performance rather than components; the price de- clines using performance-based measures are markedly larger than those re- ported in the official statistics. The history of technological change in computing has been the sub- ject of intensive research over the last five decades. However, little attention has been paid to comparing the performance of modern com- puters to pre–World War II technologies or even pencil-and-pad calcu- lations. The present study investigates the progress of computing over the last century and a half, including estimates of the progress relative to manual calculations.1 The usual way to examine technological progress in computing is either through estimating the rate of total or partial factor productivity or through examining trends in quality-adjusted prices. For such measures, it is critical to use constant-quality prices so that improvements in the capabilities of computers are adequately captured. The earliest studies, dating from around 1953, examined the price declines of mainframe computers and used com- puters. Early studies found annual price declines of 15 to 30 percent per year, and recent estimates find annual price decli