(方法学习-协整分析)城乡收入差距与寿险需求关系的协整分析.pdfVIP

绿色经济 GREEN ECONOMY 城乡收入差距与寿险 需求关系的协整分析 1,2 1,3 郑军 许小君 （1.绵阳师范学院 商学院，四川 绵阳 621000； 2.西南财经大学 保险与社会保障研究中心，成都 610074； 3.西南财经大学 工商管理学院，成都 610074） 摘要：文章利用1980～2006年我国城乡收入差距和寿险密度的年度数据进行协整分析，并运用Granger因果关系实证检验了 二者之间的关系。研究结果表明：无论长期还是短期，我国城乡收入差距都对寿险需求具有Granger因果关系，并由此提出 了增加保险需求和缩小收入差距的政策措施建议。 关键词：城乡收入差距；寿险需求；协整分析 A Co-integration Analysis of the Connection of Income Gap between Urban and Rural Areas and Life Insurance Demand ZHENG Jun1, 2, XU Xiaojun1, 3 (1. Department of Economic, Mianyang Normal University, Mianyang Sichuan 621000, China; 2. The Research Center of Insurance and Social Security ，Southwest University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 610074, China; 3. School of Business Administration, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 610074, China) Abstract : On the basis of statistical annual data from 1980 to 2006, the paper carries out an empirical analysis of the relationship between life insurance demand and income gap between urban and rural areas by employing the econometric co-integration analysis and granger cause-and-effect method of calibration. The fi ndings show there is a kind of positive correlation between life insurance demand and income gap between urban and rural areas, with the latter being the granger cause of the former. Key words : income gap between urban and rural areas; life insurance demand; co-integration analysis 1 引言 而国内的学者大多认为寿险需求受经济发展水平、通货 人口老龄化已逐渐成为我国经济建设过程中的一个现实 膨胀