气候变化对江汉平原冬小麦播种期影响.doc

气候变化对江汉平原冬小麦播种期影响 　　摘要：以位于湖北省江汉平原的天门市为研究区域，利用1955-2015年天门市冬小麦播种期内气象观测资料，采用相关回归等数理统计方法分析气候变化对冬小麦播种期的影响。结果表明，在湖北省江汉平原地区，传统播种期内气温呈逐渐升高趋势，气候适宜冬小麦播种期逐渐推迟，传统播种期内降水量呈逐渐减少的趋势。利用1981-2015年天门市国家一级农业气象观测站冬小麦观测资料进一步分析了按照传统播期播种冬小麦存在的利弊，得出在湖北省江汉平原地区，冬小麦的播种必须打破传统的种植观念，适当晚播，才有利于冬小麦的正常生长 关键词：气候变化；冬小麦；播种期；江汉平原 中图分类号：S512.1+1；S16 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2017）09-1611-03 DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2017.09.003 Effects of Climate Change on Sowing Time of Winter Wheat in Jianghan Plain SHUAI Wen-wei1，ZHU Xue-jun2，CHENG Dao1，LIU Wei1，YANG Chen1，HAN Yao1 （1.Tianmen Meteorological Bureau， Tianmen 431700， Hubei， China； 2. Xiantao Meteorological Bureau， Xiantao 433000， Hubei， China） Abstract： Taking Tianmen city located in the Jianghan plain in Hubei province as research area， base on meteorological observation data of sowing time of winter wheat in Tianmen city from 1955 to 2015， the effects of climate change on sowing time of winter wheat were analyzed by mathematical statistics methods， such as the correlation regression analysis. The results showed that， in Jianghan plain of Hubei province， the temperature increased in traditional sowing period， suitable sowing time of winter wheat was delayed gradually， and precipitation gradually reduced in traditional sowing period. The disadvantages of sowing winter wheat according to traditional concepts were analyzed using observation data of winter wheat in National Agricultural Meteorological Observatory in Tianmen city from 1981-2015， the results showed that， in Jianghan plain of Hubei province， winter wheat sowing must break the traditional concept of planting， and should be delayed， this is conducive to the normal growth of winter wheat. Key words： climate change； winter wheat； sowing time； Jianghan plain 适时播种是作物稳定高产的基础，也是经济有效的措施，播种时间选择得好，能使各生育期处于合适的气象条件下，促使各项技术措施发挥应有的作用，具有十分重要的意义。近年来，随着气候变暖，江汉平原地区冬小麦的生长发育也发生了一系列的变化，尤其是近20年来气候变暖趋势更为明显，势必对江汉平原冬小麦的播种期及冬前生长造成影响。刘万代等[1]的研究表明，偏春性品种冬小麦在湖北省的适宜播期应在传统适播期的基础上适当推迟。陈英慧[2]、张翠英[