出租车监管措施效果仿真预测模型.docVIP

出租车监管措施效果仿真预测模型摘 要：针对我国出租车监管措施的制定主要依据经验而缺乏理论支撑的现状，提出一种基于离散事件仿真的巡游型出租车服务模型。为真实模拟我国出租车路边随机搭载乘客居多的特点，假定出行需求分布在路网的节点和路段上。乘客根据价格和期望出行时间选择是否乘坐出租车，而空车根据有限的路网信息以及驾驶经验寻找乘客。模型能够模拟出租车在路网上搜索乘客并提供出行服务的动态过程，定量反映价格和配车数量与系统性能的关系，并预测改变起步价格、起步里程或者单位里程价格等监管措施的实施效果，为监管部门决策提供可靠的理论支持。? 关键词：出租车服务；监管措施；离散事件仿真；系统性能? 中图分类号：U121 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1003-5192(2008)04-?0046-?07?? A Simulation Model for Evaluating the Impact of Supervising? Interventions of Cruising Taxi Service? MU Chen, XUAN Hui-yu? (School of Management, Xian Jiaotong University,Xi’an, 710049, China)? Abstract:Taxi regulation interventions are mostly based on experience and lack of theoretical support, thus we propose a discrete event system simulation model for cruising taxi service. The passengers are assumed to be at nodes and links, thus the common behavior that taxis may pick up passengers anywhere on roadside in our country is taken into consideration. In this model, a potential customer decides whether to take taxi according to price and the expected travel time, and a vacant taxi decides where to find new passengers in view of finite information and driving experience. The model attempts to deal with the dynamic process of taxis searching for passengers and providing travel services, and quantitatively analyze how price and taxi fleet size influence system performance. The model can provide an evaluation of the impact of such intervention as changing price and start distance, and is helpful for taxi supervisor to provide better service. ? Key words:taxi services; supervising intervention; discrete event system simulation; system performance?? 1 引言? 出租车以其方便、快速、舒适的特性在城市公共交通中扮演着重要角色。但出租车只能承担单独或小批量乘客的出行任务，运输效率低，加重了道路负担和交通拥挤，因此需要通过价格和控制配车数量对出租车行业进行监管。要使监管措施行之有效，需要更精确掌握出租车服务的相关规律，预测监管措施对供、求两方面和系统服务水平的可能影响［1］。因此，模拟出租车在城市道路上搜索乘客并提供出行服务的动态过程具有重要的理论实践意义。? 然而，出租车服务具有随机性、动态性和异步并发性特点，没有固定的起迄点和运行线路，难以用微分、差分方法描述，经典文献往往忽略其时空特性或以特殊结构进行简化。例如，文献［2～4］从经济学角度研究供求平衡时的出租车服务规律，指出出租车的供求内生的相互联系，空车寻找乘客的行为是出租车区别于其他商品或