中国东南沿海重点城市台风危险性分析.pdf

11 卷 4 期 自　然 　灾 　害 　学 　报 Vol . 11 ,No . 4 2002 年 11 月 J OU RNAL OF NA TU RAL D ISA STER S Nov . , 2002 　　 文章编号 (2002) 中国东南沿海重点城市台风危险性分析 欧进萍 ,段忠东 ,常 　亮 ( 哈尔滨工业大学土木工程学院 ,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150090) 摘要 : 中国东南沿海地区是中国经济最发达 、人口最稠密的地区 , 同时也是世界上受台风影响最严重 的地区之一 。本文以上海等 9 个沿海重点城市为例 ,通过对《台风年鉴》数据的分析处理 ,提取了台风 关键参数并进行了统计分析与建模 ;利用 Monte Carlo 抽样和成熟台风风场模型模拟 ,得到了极值风 速序列 ;对年极值风速序列进行极值风速统计分析 ,得到了不同重现期和地貌的极值风速 ,结果与实 测风速比较吻合 。 关键词 : 中国东南沿海 ; 台风 ;危险性分析 ;极值风速 中图分类号 :X43 ; P444 ; TP392 　　　文献标识码 :A Typhoon risk analysis f or key coastal cities in southeast China OU J inping ,DUAN Zhongdong ,CHAN G Liang ( School of Civil Engineering , Harbin Institute of Technology , Harbin 150090 ,China) Abstract :Sout heast coast al region of China is t he mo st highly developed and pop ulated area in China , and also one of t he regions mo st seriously imp acted by t yp hoon in t he world . By analyzing t he t yp hoon dat a in Typ hoon A n nals , key p arameter s of typ hoon are ext racted and analyzed for Shanghai and ot her key cities in t his area . The st atistical models of t he key p arameter s are est ablished . Monte Carlo met hod is employed and Batt s wind field model is embedded in t he numerical typ hoon simulation . The maximum wind speeds and directions for large amount of simulated typ hoons are obt ained . The ext reme wind speeds of different ret urn periods and landforms are estimated . The estimated result s fit well wit h observed wind dat a . Key words :sout heast coast al region of China ; typ hoon ;risk analysis ;ext reme wind speed