国际贸易2011概要1.ppt

BY 李影+徐璐+李芝梅+桂甜甜+赵冰清 A combination of expiring tax cuts and across-the-board government spending cuts scheduled to become effective Dec. 31, 2012. The idea behind the fiscal cliff was that if the federal government allowed these two events to proceed as planned，………… They would have a detrimental effect（有害作用） on an already shaky economy, perhaps sending it back into an official recession as it cut household incomes, increased unemployment rates and undermined consumer and investor confidence. At the same time, it was predicted that going over the fiscal cliff would significantly reduce the federal budget deficit（财政预算）. And if Congress took no action by January 1, the US would be hit by a fiscal contraction （缩水） worth $600bn in 2013, equals to 4% of the Gross Domestic Product of U.S, which could tip the economy or even push the US back into a second recession. Its important to keep in mind that while the term “cliff” indicated an immediate disaster at the beginning of 2013, this wasnt a binary (two-outcome) event that would have ended in either a full solution or a total failure on December 31. There were two important reasons why this is the case: If all of the laws went into effect as scheduled and stayed in effect, the result would undoubtedly be a return to recession. However, the chances that such a deal wouldnt be reached were slim despite the length of time it took to come to an agreement. 2) Even if the deal did not occur before December 31, Congress had the options to change the scheduled laws retroactively to January 1?after?the deadline. The fiscal drag results from the expiry of a series of Bush-era tax cuts, （布什时代的减税）as well as the scheduled entry into force of automatic cuts to defense and domestic spending programs. （ Over 1,000 government programs - including the defense budget and Medicare, are in line for “deep, automatic cuts”） At the same time, the spending cuts agreed