张一凡专业英语.pptVIP

Tourism Management46 (2015) 158-163 Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysias economic growth? HIGHLIGHTS We examine the validity of the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia. Tourism is catalyst for Malaysias economic growth. We find that tourism Granger-causes economic growth in the short- and long-run. Policies to promote inbound tourism could effectively stimulate economic growth. The train of thought The introduction of earlier studies and the theoretical model of Solow The introduction of econometric methods Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and the VECM Granger causality test Unit root test Empirical results and analysis Concluding remarks The premise: Growth Model We assume that the growth model used in this study can be written as:   GNP-per capita gross national product; TOUR-per capita tourism receipts; PS-an overall mersure of political stability, ranging from -10 to 10 points; n,g-the prowth rates of population and technical progress respectively; The premise: Growth Model δ-the depreciation rate of the capital stock; According to Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992), the growth rate of gtd is approximately 5 per cent and constant over time. ε-the disturbance term. Analysis of Empirical results :unit root tests Table 2 reports the results of both unit root tests. Atthe 5 per cent significance level, the results of the ADF test indicate that all the variables are non-stationary at levels, but they are stationary after first differenced. Likewise, the Zivot-Andrews unit root test finds no additional evidence against the results of the ADF unitroot test. So, both unit root tests consistently suggest that lnGNPt, lnTOURt, lnPSt, lnGNSt and ln(n+g+δ)t are integrated of order one or I(1).  Analysis of Empirical results :cointegration test The results of the system-wide JohanseneJuselius cointegration test are presented in Panel A of Table 3. Importantly, wefind that both the adjusted and the u