荷兰郁金香狂热.ppt

* * The “tulip mania” of Holland 荷兰郁金香狂热 产业经济学 翁文辉 The?tulip mania was a historical event in Holland that is often held up as a prime example of the dangers of market speculation. The term?tulip mania?is often used to refer to a market bubble. A tulip mania basically occurs when there is an increase in the value of something, and a number of speculators invest heavily to take advantage of that increase — this speculation then causes a further, often more rapid, increase, which encourages further speculation. Of course, this sort of speculative increase cannot continue forever. Once the value level begins to drop, a massive drop typically results. This phenomenon is also often discussed in terms of a bubble inflating and eventually popping. Tulips were introduced into Holland before the 17th century but it did not take long for the flowers to gain popularity among the upper classes. Flowers of such beauty and rarity soon became symbols of power and prestige.?As the flowers grew in popularity, people purchased bulbs at higher and higher prices, and prices rose steadily. The speculators of European countries gathered together in Holland to participate in this speculative frenzy. By 1635, a sale of 40 bulbs for 100,000 florins was recorded. By way of comparison, a skilled laborer might earn 150 florins a year and eight fat swine cost 240 florins. By 1636 tulips were traded on the?exchanges?of numerous Dutch towns and cities. Many individuals grew suddenly rich. People rushed to the tulip marts, like flies around a honey-pot. Nobles, citizens, farmers, mechanics, seamen, footmen and chimney sweeps all dabbled in tulips. Every one imagined that the passion for tulips would last for ever, and that the wealthy from every part of the world would send to Holland, and pay whatever prices were asked for them. Tulip mania reached its peak during the winter of 1636–37, when some bulbs were reportedly changing hands ten times in