道路拥堵基本法则The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion.pptx

The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US Cities;How to relieve road congestion?;Outline;Model Specification;The reasons of this research;Review of the literature;Improvements in our study;(2) Existing literature either does not recognize that roads and traffic may be simultaneously determined, or fails to solve this identification problem. To identify the causal effect of roads on traffic, we examine both time series and cross-sectional variation in our data and exploit three instrumental variables to predict the incidence of roads in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Our results strongly support the hypothesis that roads cause traffic.;(3) We extend the conclusions of the existing literature in three ways: a. We find no evidence that the provision of public transportation affects VKT; b. Metropolitan areas with less traffic experience a larger increase in travel; c. we describe the foundations underlying the fundamental law of highway congestion: People drive more when the stock of roads in their city increases; commercial driving and trucking increase with a city’s stock of roads; and people migrate to cities that are relatively well provided with roads. Surprisingly, our data also suggest that a new lane kilometer of roadway diverts little traffic from other roads.;I. Roads and Traffic: A Simple Framework;（2）;Outcomes of extant literature;（5）;II. Data and Estimation;Six functional classes described in DOT (1989);A. Cross-Sectional Estimates of the Roadway Elasticity of VKT;;B. Fixed Effects and Time-Series Estimates of the Roadway Elasticity of VKT;;C. IV Estimates of the Roadway Elasticity of VKT;A qualifier: Our instruments are good predictors of MSA-level stocks of interstate highways and urban interstate highways. They are not good predictors of MSA level stocks of major roads or of nonurban interstate highways. For this reason, we conduct IV estimations only for interstate highways and urban interstate highways.;The conditiona