经济增速合理区间的认识（Understanding of reasonable range of economic growth）.docVIP

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经济增速合理区间的认识（Understanding of reasonable range of economic growth）.doc

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经济增速合理区间的认识（Understanding of reasonable range of economic growth）

经济增速合理区间的认识（Understanding of reasonable range of economic growth） Understanding of reasonable range of economic growth Author: Wang Yiming Since the second half of 2010, Chinas economic growth rebounded strongly from the stimulus package gradually slowed to 9.8% growth platform 9.5% ~ 9.6% growth in the third quarter of 2010, the fourth quarter growth of 9.8%, 9.7% growth in the first quarter of this year, growth in the second quarter of 9.5%. From some of the leading indicators, economic growth is still slowing signs. The change of Chinas economic growth, the sound is not exactly the same, some believe that Chinese economy faces the risk of a hard landing, and then there will be some China stagflation, economic growth momentum remains strong, it is important to avoid economic growth too fast. How to understand and grasp the current and future period of Chinas economic growth in a reasonable range, has become a need to clarify the problem. Judging the reasonable range of Chinas economic growth, the most important thing is to see whether the rate of economic growth is in line with the potential growth rate. Potential growth rate is generally defined as the maximum economic growth level that an economy can achieve within a given period of time when resources are optimized and fully configured. In the short run, due to demand factors, the actual rate of economic growth tends to fluctuate around the potential growth rate, but in the medium and long term, the realized economic growth rate is determined by the potential growth rate. Normally, can rate changes by the production function method and Phillips curve method estimates of potential growth, but a little rough, can also be used for a period of time the average growth rate as a potential growth rate, such as 1979 to 2010 the average annual GDP growth of 9.9%, roughly around 10% growth rate as the past 30 for many years the level of potential growth. If we judge whether the economic growth is in a reasonable range, i