经济学中几个有趣的效应（Several interesting effects in Economics）.docVIP

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经济学中几个有趣的效应（Several interesting effects in Economics）.doc

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经济学中几个有趣的效应（Several interesting effects in Economics）

经济学中几个有趣的效应（Several interesting effects in Economics） Our economics teacher told us a few interesting effects. Lets have a look at it. There will be a lot of feeling and inspiration after reading it. I want you to be a really rational person in your life. Allais paradox The game was designed for the 100 player test: Gamble A:100% opportunity to get 1 million yuan. Gamble B:10% opportunity to get 5 million yuan, 89% of the opportunity to get 1 million yuan, 1% of the opportunities, nothing. Results: the vast majority of people chose A instead of B. Although the bet A expectations (1 million yuan) less than the bet B expectations (1 million 390 thousand yuan) Then use the new gambling Alai for these people to continue testing, Gamble C:11% opportunity to get 1 million yuan, 89% chance, nothing can be obtained. Gamble D:10% opportunity to get 5 million yuan, 90% chance, nothing can be obtained. Results: the vast majority of people chose D instead of C. Gamble C expectations (110 thousand yuan) less than the expected value of gambling D (500 thousand yuan) Representative heuristic In August 18, 1913, in the roulette game of a casino in Monte Carlo, the black magic went on for fifteen consecutive times, and people began to go crazy and red. When black appeared in twenty consecutive times, people have further increased their bets, because everyone thinks that in the continuous black appeared twenty times after black the possibility has been less than a millionth. As a result, black was recorded for twenty-six times in a row! The casino earned a pot full. Availability elicitation There is a child of 8 years old called Molly. She has two best friends, one is Amy, and the other is Imani. Mollys parents knew Amy had a gun in their house, so they forbade Molly to play at Amys house. So Molly often went to Imans home to play, there is a swimming pool in the backyard of iman. Statistics show that, on average, every 11 thousand family pools in the United States can drown one chil