DREAM在中国农业研发效果经济评价上的应用——以大豆新品种“中豆35”研发为例.pdfVIP

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin Vo1．24 No．6 2008 June http：llwww．casb．org．cn ·512· DREAM在中国农业研发效果经济评价上的应用 以大豆新品种“中豆35’’研发为例 彭 卓 ，游良志、2，周新安 ，李先德 r 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所，北京100081； ：国际食物政策研究所，美国华盛顿特区20006； 中国农业科学院油料作物研究所，武汉430062) 摘 要：介绍了评价农业研发经济效果的动态决策支持系统一DREAM，对DREAM的核心经济理论“局 部均衡模型”和“新技术的动态采用率方法”进行了重点分析。同时以评价大豆新品种中豆35的研发效 果为例．阐述了DREAM 系统在中国农业研发投资效果评价上的具体应用。进而讨论了DREAM在国内 的应用问题。 关键词：农业研发；决策；支持系统；DREAM ；大豆 中图分类号：F3 文献标识码：A Dynamic Decision Support System For Agricultural RD Evaluation — — DREAM and its Application Peng Zhuo ，You Liangzhi ，Zhou Xin’an ，Li Xiande (Institute ofAgriculture Economics and Develop nt,Chinese Academy ofAgricuhural Sciences，Beijing 100081； 2International Food Policy Research Institute，Washington DC 20006-1002，USA； O／／Research Institute，Chinese Academy ofAgricultural Sciences，Wuhan 430062，) Abstract：Agricultural research could potentially improve the agricultural productivity and sustainability of a— groecosystem．Investment in agricultural research and development(RD)has yield handsome returns for the society．In today’s climate of tight funding for agricultural research and development，policy makers and re- search managers increasingly require accountability for the research funds they invest．Assessing the eeonom～ ic returns to past or potential research investment is one of the major tools．This paper introduces DREAM’S (Dynamic Research EvaluAtion for Management)，a menu-driven software package for evaluating the eeonom— iC impacts of agricultural research and development．We described the core of the