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assessment of the adequacy of natural gas …(评估充足的天然气u2026)
Assessment of the Adequacy of
Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity in the
Northeast United States
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability
Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis Division
November 2013
1
Preface
In 2005-06, the U.S. DOE Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) conducted a
study on the adequacy of interstate natural gas pipeline capacity serving the northeastern
United States to meet natural gas demand in the event of a pipeline disruption. The study
modeled gas demand for select market areas in the Northeast under a range of different
weather conditions. The study then determined how interstate pipeline flow patterns could
change in the event of a pipeline disruption to one or more of the pipelines serving the region in
order to meet the gas demand.1 The results of the study demonstrated how much interstate
pipeline capacity that could be taken out of service while still being able to supply natural gas for
“essential human needs.”2
Since 2006, there have been significant changes to the Northeast gas market. Chief among
these has been the rapid growth of gas production from the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania
and new pipeline and processing infrastructure expansions associated with that growth. In light
of these changes, OE in 2013 has conducted a new assessment to determine how these
changes may have affected the ability of the interstate pipeline system to meet natural gas
demand for “essential human needs” in the event of a disruption in pipeline capacity. The new
study uses the same analytic tools and methodology as the original 2005-06 study, but takes
into account the changes in gas production, demand, and infrastructure that have occurred over
the past
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