2016央行宏观经济年中预测.pdfVIP

中国人民银行工作论文 No.2016/9 PBCWorkingPaper No.2016/9 2016年6月8日 June8,2016 2016 年中国宏观经济预测（年中更新） 马骏刘斌贾彦东李建强陈辉蒋贤锋王伟斌1 摘要：今年年初以来，国内外经济和政策环境发生了一系列变化。从内需来看，国内积极财 政政策的力度有所加大，房地产和基建投资增速加快，但民间投资仍然疲弱。从外需来看， 国际组织数次下调全球经济增速预测，我国外贸增速明显低于预期，出口可能继续面临下行 压力。根据国内外的新情况，我们对2016年我国宏观经济年度指标预测进行了更新。与去 年12月发表的预测相比，我们维持对2016年全年GDP增速为6.8%的基准预测不变，同时 将固定资产投资增速预测上调为11.0%（上调0.2个百分点），出口增速预测下调至-1.0%（下 调4.1个百分点），CPI涨幅预测上调为2.4%（上调0.7个百分点）。 Abstract: Since the beginning of this year, the global and domestic economic environment has experienced a number of changes. Domestically, fiscal support for the economy has been reinforced, real estate and infrastructure investment has accelerated, but private investment has remained sluggish. Externally, major international organizations downgraded several times the growth forecasts of the global economy, suggesting renewed downward pressure on China’s export performance. Reflecting these recent developments, we revised our China macroeconomic forecasts for 2016. Compared with our published forecasts in December last year, we maintain our baseline projection of 2016 real GDP growth at 6.8%. We upgrade our forecast for fixed asset investment growth to 11.0% (by 0.2ppts), downgrade our export growth forecast to -1.0% (by 4.1ppts), and revise up our CPI inflation forecast to 2.4% (by 0.7ppts). 关键词：宏观经济预测，GDP，CPI，经常项目顺差 声明：中国人民银行工作论文发表人民银行系统工作人员的研究成果，以利于开展学术交 流与研讨。论文内容仅代表作者个人学术观点，不代表人民银行。如需引用，请注明来源 为《中国人民银行工作论文》。 Disclaimer: The Working Paper Series of the Peoples Bank of China (PBC) publishes research reports written by staff members of the PBC, in order to facilitate scholarly exchanges. The views of these reports are those of the authors and do not represent the PBC. For any quotations from these reports, please state that the source is PBC worki