以名义汇率的大幅升值来治理通胀是本末倒置（The inflation of the nominal exchange rate is the first thing to put the cart before the horse）.doc

以名义汇率的大幅升值来治理通胀是本末倒置（The inflation of the nominal exchange rate is the first thing to put the cart before the horse） The inflation of the nominal exchange rate is the first thing to put the cart before the horse In a sense, the RMB exchange rate dilemma is an inevitable result of the internal imbalance between investment and consumption, rather than the cause, so by a sharp appreciation of the nominal exchange rate to control inflation is suspected have the order reversed A well-known exchange rate view comes from the proposition of Lhasa. In simple terms, the productivity of tradable goods industries, i.e. manufacturing, is faster in a catch-up economy than in non tradable sectors (such as services), and productivity is relatively slow. Therefore, rising wages will attract labor outflow from the service industry rapid manufacturing sector, so as to improve the service level of wages, the result is a rise in the whole economy and increase the wage level of the overall price level, that is to say the real exchange rate appreciation. This proposition in China has changed, because the trade sector price can rapidly increase or decline, resulting in non trade sector prices can not go up, the price level has been suppressed for a long time in the low, the real exchange rate to rise slowly or even decline, so that labor productivity promotion in the largely accumulated in the name of simple evolution the pressure of appreciation. Thus, the current dilemma of the RMB exchange rate is clearly a problem for the two major sectors of the economy. The author believes that there are three key factors following the impact: First, in an economy almost unlimited supply of labor, Chinese trade sector labor productivity growth and wage growth continues to exceed state in the Lewis turning point (the new labor force quantity is lower than the number of labor demand is difficult to effectively change before). Because production profits are allocated to high wages and labor, benefits ca