郭新彪《环境健康学》07环境健康危险度评价08.pdfVIP

环境健康危险度评价 ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT(EHRA) 北京大学公共卫生学院 劳动卫生与环境卫生学系 潘小川 xcpan@bjmu.edu.cn SLIDE 1 What is risk? • Simplest definition: risk is the idea that something might happen, usually something bad. • 4 components of risk: – Probability （可能性）: the likelihood that something will happen, e.g.‘Your risk of dying from X is one in a million’. – Consequences （结局）: how severe are the outcomes of the probable event, e.g. ‘the likelihood (probability) of a nuclear plant meltdown is low, but it’s poses a risk due to the disastrous consequences if it happens’. – Hazard （危害）: the capacity/potential of an agent to produce an adverse effect, e.g. ‘this chemical poses a risk because it causes cancer in mice’. – Exposure （暴露）: contact between the agent and the target, e.g ‘flooding isn’t a risk for me as I live on a hilltop’ 2 SLIDE 2 What is risk? • More complete definition: ‘risk is the probability that exposure to a hazard will lead to a negative consequence’. • Risk = Probability x Consequences x Hazard x Exposure • Other general risk equations: • – Risk = Consequences x Likelihood (or probability of exposure to hazardous levels of an agent) • – Risk = Hazard (includes severity of consequences) x Exposure (includes likelihood and duration) 3 SLIDE 3 Types of Risk • Safety/engineering risks (human safety focus，安全): low probability of high level exposure, high consequence accidents, acute, immediate ef