气候变迁与流量设计关系之研究-以乌溪为例 - 国立中兴大学水土保持 .DOC

氣候變遷與設計流量關係之研究-以烏溪為例 邱建源(1)謝平城(2) 摘 要隨著氣候變遷，河川的流量、輸砂量不斷的擴大，以致於防砂壩、堤防的洪峰流量設計需要全面性調整。為平衡經濟成本與防洪安全規模，依氣候變遷情形及趨勢提出合宜的流量設計相當重要。利用主成份分析法，篩選溫度與氣壓年最低溫度、月最低溫度、年平均氣壓及月最低氣壓對雨量、流量之最為明顯，配合非線性迴歸方法推估溫度、溼度、氣壓三個因子，和雨量、流量、流量重現期距三之關係。經由迴歸方法之p-value檢定後，初步得知三個氣象因子溫度、溼度、氣壓與月降雨量有關，與月平均日流量與月平均日流量重現期距有關。 本文同時也深入研究氣候因子與流量重現期距之關係，先從年降雨量與氣之迴歸關係式，推求雨量應擴大之值，且配合水文統計方法，推求出大肚橋流量站各重現期距，將二者疊加，並利用降雨-逕流關係推求流量重現期距，結果得年平均氣壓每上升30帕，則洪峰流量設計調增五年的重現期距(關鍵詞：氣候變遷、非線性迴歸方法、重現期距) Study on relationship between and Designing Flood - A Case in Wu River Jian-Yuan Chiou(1) Ping-Cheng Hsieh(2) Graduate student (1) Professor (2), Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Chung-Hsing University, Taiwan, R.O.C. ABSTRACT With climate changes ,discharge of the rivers and watershed sediment increase , it is necessary imperative to readjust the flow design of embankment and check dam. Therefore, this article attempts to balance the economy and the safety on the flow design. The research site of the Wu River is located in the Wu River basin between Taichung County and Changhua County. The whole research work includes the Principle analysis to find out appropriate factors about temperature and atmosphere by choosing minimum, maximum or average value. This article investigates the correlation of relative humidity, temperature and atmosphere by regressing with discharge, rainfall and discharge return period. The regression objects include month data and year data. However, temperature and humidity are no relationship with one day maximum rainfalls, by regression p-value examine. Therefore, summer average temperature and one day maximum rainfall are regressed with discharge. In theoretical perspective, linear regression method is designed to figure out the relationship between rainfall and atmosphere by using yearly data. The rainfall of one hundred-year return period is added to the above value that predicts how the atmosphere affects the discharge return period. The result shows that in order to prevent the flood if a