神经网络理论在黄河宁蒙河段冰情预报中的应用((（Application of neural network theory to ice condition prediction in Ning Ning reach of the Yellow River）.docVIP

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神经网络理论在黄河宁蒙河段冰情预报中的应用((（Application of neural network theory to ice condition prediction in Ning Ning reach of the Yellow River）.doc

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神经网络理论在黄河宁蒙河段冰情预报中的应用((（Application of neural network theory to ice condition prediction in Ning Ning reach of the Yellow River）

神经网络理论在黄河宁蒙河段冰情预报中的应用((（Application of neural network theory to ice condition prediction in Ning Ning reach of the Yellow River） Application of neural network theory to ice condition prediction in Ning Ning reach of the Yellow River 1 Wang Tao 1 Guo Yongxin 1 Yang Huo 2 open Linfei seculine Rao Wu Hongxia 2 grain fall 2 1 、 China Academy of water resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China 2 、 hydrology and water resources information center of Hydrological Bureau of the Yellow River Water Conservancy Commission, Henan, Zhengzhou 450000 Abstract: This paper studies the ice condition prediction of the upper reaches of the upper reaches of the Yellow River river with the neural network theory as the core. Through the analysis of river ice characteristics, developed the improved mathematical model of traditional BP neural network theory of ice forecast by the Levenberg-Marquart algorithm, suitable for flow Ling, freeze up and break-up, water temperature, ice flow density, ice jam and forecast. The model was applied to the ice forecast in 2004 - 2005, and the ice situation in 2004-2005 years was predicted in advance. The theoretical analysis and case study show that the neural network model can Ningmeng river ice forecast, and its experience for other frozen rivers provide useful help and important reference to establish ice forecast model. Keywords: BP neural network; Levenberg-Marquart algorithm; flow Ling date; freeze up date; break-up date; water temperature 1. introduction The process of ice phenomena including ice formation, development, movement, accumulation and melting, is an important factor affecting the operation of the river in winter, it directly affects the operation and maintenance of water conservancy and hydroelectric power, inland shipping, winter water, river environmental and ecological problems. The Yellow River is Chinese ice appear most frequently in Ningmeng River (Ningxia and Inner Mongolia) the most serious river. Ningxia Meng Riv