7 Statistical Intervals - Applied Mathematics（7应用数学统计间隔）.pdf

Statistical Intervals 7 Chapter 7 Stat 4570/5570 Material from Devore’s book (Ed 8), and Cengage Confidence Intervals The CLT tells us that as the sample size n increases, the sample mean X is close to normally distributed with expected value µ and standard deviation Standardizing X by first subtracting its expected value and then dividing by its standard deviation yields the standard normal variable How big does our sample need to be if the underlying population is normally distributed? 2 Basic Properties of Confidence Intervals Because the area under the standard normal curve between –1.96 and 1.96 is .95, we know: This is equivalent to: which can be interpreted as the probability that the interval includes the true mean µ is 95%. 3 Basic Properties of Confidence Intervals The interval is thus called the 95% confidence interval for the mean. This interval varies from sample to sample, as the sample mean varies. So the interval itself is a random interval. 4 Basic Properties of Confidence Intervals The CI interval is centered at the sample mean X and extends 1.96 to each side of X . The interval’s width is 2  (1.96)  , which is not random; only the location of the interval (its midpoint X) is random. 5 Basic Properties of Confidence Intervals For a given sample, the CI can be expressed either as or as A concise expression for the interval is x ± 1.96  , where – gives the left endpoint (lower limit) and + gives the right endpoint (upper limit). 6 I