气候变化对赣江流域洪水频率影响分析.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2014, 3, 539-545 Published Online December 2014 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2014.36066 Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency in the Ganjiang Basin Jiali Guo1,2,3, Shenglian Guo2,3, Zhiqiang Zhang2,3, Xingjun Hong2,3, Zhangjun Liu2,3, Le Wang2,3 1 College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 2 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 3 Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security, Wuhan Email: culture_me@163.com th th th Received: Oct. 26 , 2014; revised: Nov. 25 , 2014; accepted: Nov. 30 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract The Xinanjiang hydrological model was driven by the SDSM statistical downscaled BCC-CSM1.1 outputs, which were released in the latest IPCC fifth assessment report AR5 to explore flood fre- quency changes of the Ganjiang basin under future climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the averages of flood magnitude with different return periods under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are reduced by 15%, 9% and 15% relative to the baseline period, respectively. The return periods of average, maximum and minimum floods of future different periods reduce in some extents. The annual maximum flood reduces remarkably; a design flood of 1000-year (or 150-year) return period under future scenario is equal to that of 100-year (or 15-year) under the baseline period. Keywords