森林火险天气等级预测及火情监测应用 - 自然灾害学报.PDFVIP

15 5 V o.l 15, No. 5 2006 10 JOURNA L OF NATURAL D ISA STER S O ct. , 2006 : ( 2006) 王正旺, 庞转棠, 魏建军, 杨艳萍, 杨梅红 ( , 0460 11) : 19 89- 200 3 500 hP a, 4 , , vb6. 0 24 ~ 48 h , , , : ; ; ; : P457; S762. 3 : A Forecast of weather grade in forest fire risk and application of fire monitoring WANG Zhengw ang, PANG Zhuantang, W E I J ianjun, YANG Y anp ing, YANG M eihong ( Changzhi M un icipalM eteorological Bureau of Shanx i Provin ce, Changzh i 046011, Ch ina) Abstract: Based on the analysis o f 500 hP a upper a ir synoptic situation from 1989 through 2003, fourm ain synoptic m ode l to bring about m artial law tmi e for fo rest fire risk in w inter and spring is presented. L eading facto rs of w eath er and biotem perature wh ich have close corre lation w ith forest fire risk is found out. A ccording to the stat istica l analysis of the forest fire s w eather condition, gradat ion of f ire risk synoptic index is carried through for those fac to rs. T he forecast p latform for forest fire risk in fu ture 24 ~ 4 8 h is deve loped w ith sofwt are vb6. 0, wh ich possesses stable operat ion and h igh precision. A dopting rem ote sensing techn ique of sate llite, som e forest fireproo f safe m eas ures are put fo rw ard, wh ich p lays an act ive w eather guarantee in grade forecast of forest fire risk and fo rest fire fight ing. K ey words: forest fire risk; synopt ic m odel; g rade forecast; satellite m on itor ing , 11155~ 11344, 3548~ 370 8, 2 13 896 km , 80. 48% , 19. 52% ,